MLS July 1-July 4

rolltide · Jun 30, 2010

YTD 18-16 +19.76 (+13.7%) staked 144.46
Regular 18-12 +21.76
Parlay 0-4 -2.00

many bets for the weekend...asians slowly posting odds and first game is ready for Thursday night:

Toronto vs Houston
- TFC playing on Canada Day, a big holiday up north, and have a great opportunity for 3 points against Houston. TFC playing fairly well but just can't score so hopefully that will change against a very poor Dynamo defense who have allowed 11 goals in last 4 matches and 9 goals in last 3 road games. TFC have posted 3 straight home shutouts and clean sheets in 4 out of 5 and pulled out an uninteresting point vs top club, LA Galaxy, last week as action returned to the MLS. The match was absolutely brutal with only 13 shots attempted, 4 corners, and no cards as each team was satisfied with a point. Houston played at home last night barely beating USSF 2nd division side, Miami, despite using several regulars. They got striker Landin injured in the match and statistically could not separate themselves from Miami because they are just way out of form. They haven't won an MLS match since beating DC on May 22 and have just 4 away points this season. Typically I would not bet an Eastern team, home or away, against a Western team but Houston have lost their last 2 games vs Eastern teams, RBNY and Philadelphia, and right now TFC are equal to or better than those teams now that Preki's system is in place. Much like with CUSA his teams aren't scoring but their possession has been great and the goals should come (though i said that for years with CUSA). I'll go with the team in better form here and playing in front of a sold out crowd on the evening of an important Canadian holiday.

Toronto -1/4 4u -103

rolltide · Jul 1, 2010

Real Salt Lake vs New England
- RSL coach Jason Kreis tore his team apart after their pathetic 0-0 performance last week vs San Jose. Although they were better in 2H they nearly lost the match in final minutes saved by keeper Rimando. After that poor showing I expect the MLS champs to be very focused for this match and to take care of NE without problems. They are unbeaten in 21 straight home games and have beaten all 3 Eastern Conference teams they've played at home this year by a 9-2 differential. Go back to last year and they've won 5 straight over eastern teams with 12/2 differential. New England haven't been real competitive on the road losing 4 straight and getting shutout in 3 of those. Their last visit to the Salt Lake altitude ended in a 6-0 loss. RSL likely to see the return of captain and important MF Beckerman (been out a month) plus Findley back from the world cup...New England with their normal host of injuries. Most of NE's injuries are long term but they just added Boggs to the list but do get back starting keeper Reis for 2nd straight game. His backup, Burpo, had played basically all matches due to bad injury to Reis so not sure exactly how Reis' fitness is or if he's playing injured because Burpo can't go though he is clear #1 over Burpo normally. The NE lineup is very poor and probably only Shalrie Joseph would start for RSL. The coach is getting a ton of critcism for continuing to start Phelan in central mid along with the group of young Africans he brought in who are contributing nothing to this team for 2 years. The home team will rebound in this one after getting publicly dressed down by Kreis and they have extra incentive as this is their last home game until July 24. They are, along with Cbus and LA, one of the best teams in MLS while NE are with KC as one of the worst. Odds should be 1.40 not 1.60

Real Salt Lake 4.25u -167

rolltide · Jul 1, 2010

Colorado vs RBNY
- I love the annual bet on Colorado when playing on Independence Day! Every year the Rapids pack their stadium and treat the fans to their best performance of the season, now 11-1-2 all time on July 4, with a big fireworks show after the game. Normally playing away, and now 2 out of 3 years at Colorado, the Red Bulls are just 1-1-8 on Independence Day (0-0-3 1/10 L3 years). Both teams in good form with Rapids unbeaten in 4 and RBNY 3 straight wins. RBNY with 3rd match this week and have lost 8-0 in their last two visits to the Denver altitude. Two years ago when these teams met in Colorado on July 4 the Red Bulls were 5-5-4 and Colorado 5-1-8 yet the Rapids took them apart 4-0. Red Bulls have 8 wins on the season, most in the east, but they have only played one game (3-1 loss vs Cbus) against any of the top 4 teams in the league (LA, Cbus, RSL, Colorado). Only LA have beaten Colorado in Denver since August 2009 and the home team have no important missings. RBNY with some real issues in MF and attack without Robinson, Richards, and Kandji. Both teams will be fresh but I will back the home side who are nearly unbeatable on July 4 every year.

Colorado 6u +111

rolltide · Jul 3, 2010

Dallas vs Kansas City
- KC have scored 6 of their 11 goals this year in 2 games against DC and Philly, the teams with lowest point total in MLS. Throw those out and you have a club that has scored just 5 times in 10 matches while conceding 16. A year ago Dallas won this fixture 6-0 with all 6 goals scored by Cunningham and Ferreira. While Cunningham not in as good of form as last year Ferreira is having a great season now that he is comfortable with MLS play. While Dallas went into LA last week to knock off Chivas KC wilted at home losing 3-0 to the Red Bulls. The reason I did not want to play this game was exactly for that reason...I rarely ever oppose a team that gets humiliated like KC did last week. But, value is value, and there is no way Dallas only have a 55% chance of winning this match. They are rock solid defensively, 8 straight games allowing just 0 or 1 goal, while KC are 0-0-3 1/8 away to Western Conference teams. Dallas are 1-1-0 at home against Eastern teams as they beat DC and drew Columbus. Too much value to not have a bit of a go on this match.

Dallas 1.5u -110

San Jose vs DC United
- unlike most teams DC used a lot of regulars in the midweek US Open Cup match against Richmond and now travel cross country to take on San Jose. I don't like either team but San Jose are decent at home and DC are terrible away so will take the generous odds. Truthfully, DC probably playing superior football to SJ right now, but no way a 1-0-5 5/14 away team can be backed playing their 3rd match in a week against a SJ team that has rested for 8 days. SJ have played a game less than DC yet have nearly double the amount of points and that is not by accident. DC have a ton of defensive injuries and SJ's big off-season signing, Eduardo, expected to be fit tonight after playing just 31' all year. with Johnson, Eduardo, Wondolowski, Glenn, and Convey San Jose have more than enough offense to exploit the leaky DC defense even if Arturo Alvarez is out.

San Jose 1.5u -110